1. Accelerated technology iteration: Double breakthroughs in energy density and cost
1. Energy density leap
High-nickel, low-cobalt ternary materials (such as NCM811, NCMA) are pushing the energy density of power batteries to break through the 300Wh/kg mark. Leading companies represented by CATL have achieved mass production of NCM811 batteries, which is 40% higher than the traditional NCM523 energy density, helping electric vehicles to exceed 600 kilometers of endurance.
2. Cobalt content continues to decline
After evolving from NCM523 (cobalt accounts for 20%) to NCM811 (cobalt accounts for 10%), the quaternary material NCMA (nickel cobalt manganese aluminum) further compressed the cobalt content to less than 5%, and LG New Energy's NCMA battery has entered Tesla's supply chain. The high-voltage quaternary precursor material developed by GEM has achieved mass production, and the cobalt content is reduced by 60% compared with the 622 system.
2. Collaborative innovation in the industrial chain: material system and process revolution
1. Breakthrough in material innovation
- Nickel-based single crystal materials: Solve the shortcoming of high-nickel material cycle life and achieve 3,000 cycles of capacity retention rate ≥ 80%
- Nano-coating technology: Use Al₂O₃, LiPO₂F₂ and other coating layers to inhibit electrolyte side reactions and improve thermal stability
2. Manufacturing process upgrade
The production of high-nickel positive electrode materials requires the use of high-temperature solid-phase method in a pure oxygen environment, and the equipment corrosion resistance requirements are increased by 3 times, which promotes the iteration of core equipment such as sintering kilns and coating machines. The "dry electrode process" developed by BYD increases the compaction density of the pole piece by 15% and reduces the production cost by 20%.
3. Market structure reconstruction: global competition and substitution risks
1. Intensified international competition
Panasonic 21700 cylindrical battery has a nickel content of 90%, supporting Tesla Model 3 to achieve a system energy density of 300Wh/kg; Samsung SDI's Gen5 battery uses NCA9 series materials with a cobalt content of only 3%. Domestic companies need to break through technical bottlenecks such as high hygroscopicity of high-nickel materials and poor slurry stability.
2. Alternative technology game
Lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) has an energy density of 230Wh/kg, and its cost is 30% lower than NCM811, threatening the mid- and low-end markets; solid-state battery technology breakthroughs may reconstruct the material system. However, the high-nickel route still has a window period of 5-8 years in the high-end car market.
4. Sustainable development drive: resource security and circular economy
1. Strategic reserve of cobalt resources
The Democratic Republic of the Congo controls 70% of the world's cobalt mine supply. Chinese companies have locked in 35% of the world's cobalt resources in 2025 by participating in Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei Co., Ltd. and other companies.
2. Improvement of recycling system
GEM has built a battery recycling capacity of 100,000 tons/year, with a nickel-cobalt recycling rate of over 95%. It is expected that recycled nickel-cobalt can meet 30% of the demand for high-nickel battery raw materials in 2030.
5. Policy and standard traction: global technology route coordination
1. Breakthrough of China's technical standards
The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" clearly states that the market share of high-nickel materials will exceed 50% in 2025, and promotes the establishment of a nickel-cobalt futures trading center.
2. International certification system docking
The new EU battery regulations require that the cobalt recycling rate of power batteries exceed 95% in 2030, forcing companies to establish a closed-loop system of nickel-cobalt "mining-smelting-application-recycling".
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Key breakthroughs in the next three years:
① The mass production yield of NCMA quaternary materials exceeds 90% ② Commercialization of solid electrolyte matching high-nickel positive electrode technology ③ Innovation of financial instruments for hedging nickel price fluctuations ④ Optimization of fast charging performance of low-cobalt batteries (charged to 80% in 15 minutes). High-nickel, low-cobalt technology will continue to dominate the high-end power battery market, but we need to be wary of industrial changes brought about by disruptive innovations in material systems.